1 00:00:02,700 --> 00:00:08,210 [Music] 2 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:17,400 I 3 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:33,450 get 4 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,450 [Music] 5 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:41,559 welcome to Sputnik orbiting the world 6 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:43,960 with me George Galloway and me gatri is 7 00:00:41,559 --> 00:00:46,199 the pound down or up and what does that 8 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:48,879 mean are the markets crashing and 9 00:00:46,199 --> 00:00:51,600 burning or booming and why should you 10 00:00:48,879 --> 00:00:54,079 care first brexit now Trump have 11 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:56,480 injected massive volatility into the 12 00:00:54,079 --> 00:00:59,039 British economy the ccope has been 13 00:00:56,480 --> 00:01:01,480 shaken and the pieces are still in flux 14 00:00:59,039 --> 00:01:04,519 our guest in this special edition on the 15 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:07,960 economy is a special guest indeed City 16 00:01:04,519 --> 00:01:10,439 editor Supreme the dwen of City editors 17 00:01:07,960 --> 00:01:12,600 from the times to the evening standard 18 00:01:10,439 --> 00:01:14,880 he has occupied all the commanding 19 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:16,960 Heights of financial journalism in 20 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:20,000 Britain I've known him for almost 30 21 00:01:16,960 --> 00:01:22,479 years and never not been impressed he is 22 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:26,119 Anthony Hilton and he's here now on 23 00:01:22,479 --> 00:01:29,119 board the Sputnik Anthony welcome the 24 00:01:26,119 --> 00:01:30,600 massive volatility that gatri talked 25 00:01:29,119 --> 00:01:34,920 about 26 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:38,280 is it something that we should fear or 27 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:39,479 is it a normal up and down of of the 28 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:42,759 capitalist 29 00:01:39,479 --> 00:01:45,880 system I I think a bit of both to be 30 00:01:42,759 --> 00:01:47,920 quite honest I think that the volatility 31 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:50,560 is partly because of our kind of 32 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:54,640 tectonic Shi uh plate shifting you know 33 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:57,280 that the uh the whole uh 34 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:59,560 globalization uh process is if not 35 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:01,719 unwinding certainly stalled and I think 36 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:03,520 that's being reflected in the markets 37 00:02:01,719 --> 00:02:05,600 and then the other side is that you know 38 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:07,320 there's just so much hot money in the 39 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:10,000 world now so much money that can be 40 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:12,319 mobilized at the Press of a button in a 41 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:13,680 way that it could never be before that 42 00:02:12,319 --> 00:02:15,560 you're bound to get that much more 43 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,879 volatility well let's look at the pound 44 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:20,599 for a start we were told in the 45 00:02:17,879 --> 00:02:22,519 immediate wake of the brexit vote that 46 00:02:20,599 --> 00:02:26,160 the pound had never been lower it was on 47 00:02:22,519 --> 00:02:29,400 the floor might be headed for under the 48 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:31,519 floor after the Trump result we were 49 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:35,000 told that the pound had had its best 50 00:02:31,519 --> 00:02:37,680 week for I don't know how many decades 51 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:40,760 what does that actually mean why should 52 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:44,280 I mean we have very few pounds we have 53 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:46,920 no shares nor even own property why 54 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:50,000 should we and people like us and bear in 55 00:02:46,920 --> 00:02:53,120 mind 16 million people in Britain have 56 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:56,159 less than1 in the bank and many millions 57 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:58,840 more have no bank account at all why 58 00:02:56,159 --> 00:03:01,280 should Ordinary People care about these 59 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:05,120 fluctuations well in the case of the 60 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:07,680 pound um they care because it will 61 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:09,440 fairly quickly affect how much they pay 62 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:12,239 for whatever they buy in the shops I 63 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:14,760 mean a country like this which Imports 64 00:03:12,239 --> 00:03:17,599 half to 2third of its food pays for it 65 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:20,159 in Sterling if the pound shops you have 66 00:03:17,599 --> 00:03:23,760 to pay more so that transmits through 67 00:03:20,159 --> 00:03:25,560 into the shops in time and you will see 68 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:27,720 uh a bit of inflation you'll see Rising 69 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:29,400 you have a Marmite crisis well Marmite 70 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,640 is an early indication yeah if you like 71 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:33,640 it's now in the coal mine of what there 72 00:03:31,640 --> 00:03:37,519 could be that much more to come or a bit 73 00:03:33,640 --> 00:03:40,080 of profiteering uh the Apple uh uh S 74 00:03:37,519 --> 00:03:42,879 charge on British consumers has been 75 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:44,920 widely criticized as uh as sharp 76 00:03:42,879 --> 00:03:47,599 practice Yeah well you always get this 77 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:50,000 don't you that when there is a kind of 78 00:03:47,599 --> 00:03:51,760 excuse for putting up prices then there 79 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,360 will always be a few companies who do 80 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:56,000 just a little bit more than perhaps they 81 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:59,200 need to just to catch up or as you say 82 00:03:56,000 --> 00:04:02,640 to uh make a bit more money of course uh 83 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:06,040 a potential concomitant of all of this 84 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:09,079 is import substitution after all if we 85 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:12,400 import half 2/3 of our food we don't 86 00:04:09,079 --> 00:04:16,079 have to do we uh we can make perfectly 87 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:18,479 well our own um cheese our own butter 88 00:04:16,079 --> 00:04:21,440 and many of the things that we buy 89 00:04:18,479 --> 00:04:24,479 cheaply uh from foreign sources at the 90 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:26,680 moment uh probably with food we could 91 00:04:24,479 --> 00:04:29,080 not be self-sufficient unless we all 92 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:31,759 wanted to live on potatoes or or or or 93 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:33,400 grain but you I mean the point you make 94 00:04:31,759 --> 00:04:35,600 is a valid one but of course that's the 95 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:37,639 point in a way that Trump is making in 96 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:40,039 the United States about trying to take 97 00:04:37,639 --> 00:04:41,880 manufacturing back to the States it's 98 00:04:40,039 --> 00:04:45,199 the same idea that why buy it from 99 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:47,000 abroad if you can make it at home and 100 00:04:45,199 --> 00:04:49,440 the issue is that perhaps they can make 101 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:51,600 it abroad more efficiently and we would 102 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,680 be better off doing what we do well here 103 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:55,880 and selling it to them and buying from 104 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:58,199 them what they can do cheaper than us so 105 00:04:55,880 --> 00:05:02,360 that that's the argument for trade yeah 106 00:04:58,199 --> 00:05:05,400 but another concomitant is exports uh 107 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:08,479 gri has a small vintage clothes shop in 108 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:12,440 the Portell Market uh area I can tell 109 00:05:08,479 --> 00:05:15,600 you that there's a a fantastic number of 110 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:18,440 foreign visitors in the PTO belloo area 111 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:20,520 uh right now I mean a phenomenal amount 112 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:22,960 really noticeable even for me just 113 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:26,680 standing guard in the in the shop so 114 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:29,080 tourism is one invisible export and all 115 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:32,840 the other things that we actually export 116 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:34,639 are now cheaper yep in theory anyway 117 00:05:32,840 --> 00:05:37,440 yeah I mean to some extent what we 118 00:05:34,639 --> 00:05:41,440 export has parts that we have to import 119 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:43,639 first so it's not exactly as clearcut 120 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:45,400 but the interesting thing is that when 121 00:05:43,639 --> 00:05:48,759 the pound dropped after the financial 122 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:51,600 crisis back in 2008 and the pound then 123 00:05:48,759 --> 00:05:54,039 dropped about 25% but there was no 124 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:56,600 increase in exports um on new material 125 00:05:54,039 --> 00:05:59,039 increase in exports so you do Wonder to 126 00:05:56,600 --> 00:06:01,080 what extent price is the determining 127 00:05:59,039 --> 00:06:04,800 factor with exports and whether you know 128 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:06,880 it's quality or after sales service or 129 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:10,599 basically are we actually producing what 130 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:12,360 the world wants to buy now um this is 131 00:06:10,599 --> 00:06:14,919 great of great importance to us and I 132 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:17,199 read recently that um due to the surplus 133 00:06:14,919 --> 00:06:19,039 of luxury apartments in New York the 134 00:06:17,199 --> 00:06:20,960 rents are actually going down and 135 00:06:19,039 --> 00:06:23,400 tenants are harder to find now um we're 136 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:26,199 waiting for that day to come to happen 137 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:27,479 here in London well it's beginning to 138 00:06:26,199 --> 00:06:29,560 well I wouldn't say it's happening to 139 00:06:27,479 --> 00:06:31,560 that extent yet but I mean the top 140 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:34,120 depend of the property Market in London 141 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:36,080 has stalled really quite badly since to 142 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:38,000 is still too far for most of the people 143 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:40,199 I mean oh yeah yeah quite but then 144 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,440 that's true of New York too I mean I I I 145 00:06:40,199 --> 00:06:43,199 have lots of friends in New York and 146 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:46,199 none of them live on Park Avenue you 147 00:06:43,199 --> 00:06:48,080 know I mean um let's face it most people 148 00:06:46,199 --> 00:06:51,440 can't afford 40 million or whatever or 149 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:54,160 even 1 million for a house um or even 150 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:57,080 much less than that London is now less 151 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:58,960 attractive to foreign buyers for if you 152 00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:01,120 like political reasons or geopolitical 153 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:04,240 uncertainty but of course it's more 154 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:05,840 attractive in terms of they've had a had 155 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:08,879 a drop in price because of the the 156 00:07:05,840 --> 00:07:11,879 Fallen Sterling so if you're sitting in 157 00:07:08,879 --> 00:07:14,479 I know in Singapore or or in Russia um 158 00:07:11,879 --> 00:07:16,479 that house in a smart part of London is 159 00:07:14,479 --> 00:07:18,639 going to cost you 15 20% less than it 160 00:07:16,479 --> 00:07:20,240 would have done earlier this year but 161 00:07:18,639 --> 00:07:22,400 interly enough they're not coming which 162 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:25,400 is I think the the Intriguing point now 163 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:28,960 you know the city inside out we were 164 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:32,479 treated in the runup to the uh EU 165 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:35,039 referendum to all kinds of fear stories 166 00:07:32,479 --> 00:07:37,319 that the city of London would basically 167 00:07:35,039 --> 00:07:40,479 have a plug pulled and and go down the 168 00:07:37,319 --> 00:07:44,120 drain we've got big institutions warning 169 00:07:40,479 --> 00:07:47,000 that they might relocate out of London 170 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:50,440 how serious a threat is that and if it 171 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:52,440 were to occur wouldn't that trigger some 172 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:55,199 kind of re-calibration of the British 173 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:57,960 economy away from Finance capitalism 174 00:07:55,199 --> 00:08:01,240 back to what we once were as as an 175 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:02,520 industrial and Manufacturing country um 176 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:04,240 yeah I think there's truth in both of 177 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:07,960 those things I mean I I would certainly 178 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:11,199 say that the city is too big for uh the 179 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:13,159 UK economy uh so it is unbalanced and 180 00:08:11,199 --> 00:08:14,960 there's a lot of work being done that 181 00:08:13,159 --> 00:08:17,479 says in fact the city could be onethird 182 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:20,440 of the size and still deliver everything 183 00:08:17,479 --> 00:08:22,879 that the UK economy needs and you know 184 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:24,440 so much it's it's bigger than it should 185 00:08:22,879 --> 00:08:26,199 be because it makes so much money you 186 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:28,360 know and it's not lending money to the 187 00:08:26,199 --> 00:08:30,560 real economy it's it's it's sort of 188 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:32,360 lending money as an end in itself to 189 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:34,080 make money for itself so it could be 190 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:36,200 shrunk and that would not be disastrous 191 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,919 for the British economy in terms of 192 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:41,080 whether they're all going to up sticks 193 00:08:37,919 --> 00:08:43,560 and move to Frankfurt or Luxembourg or 194 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:45,760 um Dublin it's a bit too early to say it 195 00:08:43,560 --> 00:08:47,560 does well the two things one it depends 196 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:51,680 on the nature of any deal that comes 197 00:08:47,560 --> 00:08:54,600 into place if we ever do leave the EU um 198 00:08:51,680 --> 00:08:57,880 and secondly is whether or not you can 199 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:59,600 fudge it you know that that if you if 200 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:01,480 you put a few people saying into 201 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:03,720 Luxembourg and call one of them a 202 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:05,320 managing director does that mean in fact 203 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:07,040 that the business is located in 204 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:10,440 Luxembourg and can actually carry on 205 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:13,079 here so I think that the 206 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:16,240 um whether there'll be a mass migration 207 00:09:13,079 --> 00:09:18,000 is still very much up in the air well 208 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:20,440 that'll partly depend on what kind of 209 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:23,600 brexit won't it um and that's what I'd 210 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:25,959 like to turn to now uh there's a poll 211 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:29,839 today saying the majority of British 212 00:09:25,959 --> 00:09:33,640 people want to stay in the single Market 213 00:09:29,839 --> 00:09:37,360 but control immigration as we know these 214 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:40,920 two things are at least at the moment uh 215 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:45,600 incompatible you cannot have one uh with 216 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:47,399 the other uh what's your best guess on 217 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:49,519 what the British government's 218 00:09:47,399 --> 00:09:53,800 negotiation will produce on 219 00:09:49,519 --> 00:09:56,720 this um well as you say the the sters 220 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:58,320 they want the cake and eat it 221 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,959 um 222 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:02,560 I 223 00:09:59,959 --> 00:10:05,360 at the moment I think they're obviously 224 00:10:02,560 --> 00:10:08,160 not going to get free movement of Labor 225 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:11,160 uh or or uh be able to restrict that if 226 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:14,040 only because you know it if you look at 227 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:16,120 the eastern part of the EU Poland 228 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:19,160 Romania I mean those countries free 229 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:22,160 movement is very integral to them um and 230 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:24,600 uh they are not going to agree to a deal 231 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:28,760 where that that gets unscrambled I would 232 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:31,600 have thought um where we end up uh I 233 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:34,240 mean who knows I I I I wonder whether 234 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:35,839 the way the world is going in 18 months 235 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:38,760 two years time whether there won't be a 236 00:10:35,839 --> 00:10:41,160 big rethink you know in the EU as well 237 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:43,800 as here and it is possible that the 238 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:45,800 whole EU project gets recast in a way 239 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:48,399 that's acceptable to us but to answer 240 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:52,399 your question specifically I think if it 241 00:10:48,399 --> 00:10:56,680 comes to a choice the British government 242 00:10:52,399 --> 00:10:59,480 would as well leave both rather than um 243 00:10:56,680 --> 00:11:03,120 agree to definitely it's politically 244 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:06,760 untenable to accept free movement of 245 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:10,399 labor after all that was the major Reon 246 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:13,800 why we why we voted to leave it's 247 00:11:10,399 --> 00:11:18,240 therefore the case that we'll have to as 248 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:20,320 of today forly leave the single Market 249 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:22,519 but we had Steve Norris The prominent 250 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:24,600 conservative uh here just a few weeks 251 00:11:22,519 --> 00:11:27,880 ago he was making the point that that 252 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:30,639 doesn't necessarily mean tariffs because 253 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:33,279 German motor manufacturers don't want to 254 00:11:30,639 --> 00:11:35,440 see tariffs put on our Goods because 255 00:11:33,279 --> 00:11:37,560 we'll retaliate putting tariffs on 256 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:40,600 theirs and they won't be able to sell 257 00:11:37,560 --> 00:11:43,560 their uh product so we could be out of 258 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:46,079 the single Market but still trading with 259 00:11:43,560 --> 00:11:48,120 the members of the EU couldn't we uh in 260 00:11:46,079 --> 00:11:49,920 theory yes but you then get into 261 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:52,440 complicated things with the world 262 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:56,480 Traders organization and membership of 263 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:59,760 that which um basically I'm not 264 00:11:56,480 --> 00:12:02,399 Authority on the detail of it but you 265 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:03,839 can't do a favorable deal with one 266 00:12:02,399 --> 00:12:05,920 country as it were without offering it 267 00:12:03,839 --> 00:12:07,880 to others and so there are 268 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:10,519 complications about how you go going 269 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:12,360 forward but to your point or to Steve 270 00:12:10,519 --> 00:12:15,920 Norris's point about Germany sells a lot 271 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:19,320 of cars here that is true but Germany 272 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:21,360 not many other EU countries export a 273 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:23,839 great deal to us I mean the bulk of what 274 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:27,600 we export and it comes from Germany oh 275 00:12:23,839 --> 00:12:29,920 and of course Ireland as well um and 276 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:32,199 given that there are 28 Nations in the 277 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:34,959 EU and they've all got to agree to some 278 00:12:32,199 --> 00:12:36,959 kind of deal then Germany is seriously 279 00:12:34,959 --> 00:12:39,680 outvoted albeit it has a lot of 280 00:12:36,959 --> 00:12:42,079 clout well look let's take a break there 281 00:12:39,680 --> 00:12:45,000 uh there's much more where that came 282 00:12:42,079 --> 00:12:45,000 from after 283 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:54,680 this welcome back to Sputnik president 284 00:12:50,959 --> 00:12:57,279 Trump yes president Trump intends both a 285 00:12:54,680 --> 00:13:00,399 massive increase in infrastructure 286 00:12:57,279 --> 00:13:02,440 expenditure and massive tax cuts how 287 00:13:00,399 --> 00:13:04,920 will he deal with the resultant rise in 288 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:07,160 the deficit he promises economic 289 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:09,240 protectionism for American jobs and an 290 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:10,959 enter trade deals with the world and 291 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:14,360 America at the back of the queue for the 292 00:13:10,959 --> 00:13:17,120 likes of ttip is all this something to 293 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:19,880 fear or as Roosevelt put it is Fear The 294 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:23,160 Only Thing Worth fearing Anthony Hilton 295 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:25,920 a captain of capitalist journalism is 296 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:28,199 still with us on the Sputnik are you 297 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:31,360 afraid of the Trump economic 298 00:13:28,199 --> 00:13:34,120 prescription seem seems in Orthodox 299 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:37,120 capitalist terms rather Reckless if he 300 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:40,440 means it putting the Rust Belt back to 301 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:42,639 work with big infrastructure uh projects 302 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:47,839 whilst cutting taxes seems like a recipe 303 00:13:42,639 --> 00:13:50,279 for ruin uh could be but equally um it 304 00:13:47,839 --> 00:13:54,120 could work I mean clearly take the good 305 00:13:50,279 --> 00:13:56,279 parts America clearly needs uh a to 306 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:59,199 provide more jobs for its people and B 307 00:13:56,279 --> 00:14:02,360 to upgrade its infrastructure so it's 308 00:13:59,199 --> 00:14:05,040 worth borrowing to do that uh in terms 309 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:06,839 of uh the budget deficit in the states 310 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,720 they've got a lot of headro there quite 311 00:14:06,839 --> 00:14:10,199 honestly they they could run it as a 312 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:13,639 deficit or they could raise the money in 313 00:14:10,199 --> 00:14:15,959 the bond markets I think the interesting 314 00:14:13,639 --> 00:14:18,560 thing is where this goes after that I 315 00:14:15,959 --> 00:14:21,959 mean clearly the the stock market and uh 316 00:14:18,560 --> 00:14:24,199 if you like uh my capitalist FS are um 317 00:14:21,959 --> 00:14:25,839 making a lot of money at the moment in 318 00:14:24,199 --> 00:14:28,279 the hope that it will revive the 319 00:14:25,839 --> 00:14:30,680 American economy and if it does revive 320 00:14:28,279 --> 00:14:32,120 the American the American economy then 321 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,920 you know the bills pay for itself you 322 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:36,519 get more tax revenue and the deficit is 323 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:38,240 a transitory thing not a not a lasting 324 00:14:36,519 --> 00:14:41,880 milstone although he's going to cut 325 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:44,720 taxes he is going to cut taxes yes um 326 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:49,199 and in a way it's a harking back to what 327 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:51,880 vagan did 30 odd years ago and that did 328 00:14:49,199 --> 00:14:53,800 create a big hole in the budget which 329 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:56,519 actually was never really filled until 330 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:59,399 Clinton came in it took a long time but 331 00:14:56,519 --> 00:15:01,560 in fact you know you you probably net 332 00:14:59,399 --> 00:15:03,720 net the economy was better off because 333 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:05,959 more people were in work even if the 334 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:09,240 overall budgetary situation was was was 335 00:15:05,959 --> 00:15:11,839 poor no I uh predicted Trump's Victory 336 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:14,120 one of the few who did because I know 337 00:15:11,839 --> 00:15:16,440 the state of the Rust Belt and where 338 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:19,199 that lies on the pathway to the 339 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:22,199 presidency these swing states that he 340 00:15:19,199 --> 00:15:26,120 won like Wisconsin like Michigan like 341 00:15:22,199 --> 00:15:29,120 Ohio and came very close to winning some 342 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:33,120 others uh the bitterness and anger in 343 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:37,240 these places at the clintones burning of 344 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:40,440 their industrial base uh was something 345 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:43,240 that was always likely it seemed to me 346 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:45,880 to Scupper a a Clinton running for 347 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:50,600 office after all she was a chief 348 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:55,160 advocate of of the NAFTA and of ttip and 349 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:57,440 the uh Asian Pacific uh equivalent and 350 00:15:55,160 --> 00:16:00,240 that's what's done for American industry 351 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:03,120 isn't it well to a point I mean I I 352 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:05,000 think even if there' been no uh NAFTA 353 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:08,160 and ttip obviously hasn't 354 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:10,639 happened uh America was still vulnerable 355 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:14,319 to cheap Imports once China came on the 356 00:16:10,639 --> 00:16:19,000 scene with uh you know an extra billion 357 00:16:14,319 --> 00:16:20,839 uh workers in the industrial system then 358 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:23,480 they were obviously going to flood the 359 00:16:20,839 --> 00:16:25,399 world with um with cheap goods and 360 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:27,399 America just couldn't compete only if 361 00:16:25,399 --> 00:16:31,279 you let them of course and he stood 362 00:16:27,399 --> 00:16:33,880 outside uh for Motor plant I presume in 363 00:16:31,279 --> 00:16:36,839 Michigan certainly in the rust Bel and 364 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:40,720 he said if you close this Factory Mr 365 00:16:36,839 --> 00:16:43,240 Ford uh I'm going to put massive tariffs 366 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:45,759 on anything you produce in Mexico that 367 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:50,519 should have been produced in this plant 368 00:16:45,759 --> 00:16:53,360 that's almost uh socialist talk isn't it 369 00:16:50,519 --> 00:16:56,600 um yeah I mean you can go back to closed 370 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:59,560 economies but uh economic theory and 371 00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:03,160 indeed the reality since the the war 372 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:06,400 since 1950 is 373 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:08,600 that uh trade between nations with each 374 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:10,720 specializing on what it does best 375 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:12,799 creates a better outcome for everybody 376 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:15,559 the trouble is that the outcomes or the 377 00:17:12,799 --> 00:17:18,319 better outcomes are not evenly shared 378 00:17:15,559 --> 00:17:20,600 and the issue in the states and in the 379 00:17:18,319 --> 00:17:22,520 UK and indeed the rest of Europe is that 380 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:26,079 the benefits of globalization have gone 381 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:27,799 to a few not the many and so the the 382 00:17:26,079 --> 00:17:30,360 issue is actually that that should have 383 00:17:27,799 --> 00:17:33,320 been addressed rather than that you uh 384 00:17:30,360 --> 00:17:36,559 you stop globalization I would say the 385 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:38,440 the outcome has been beneficial for the 386 00:17:36,559 --> 00:17:41,480 capitalists and a 387 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:43,039 comprador uh around them but for the 388 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:45,679 mass of the people and this is true of 389 00:17:43,039 --> 00:17:48,240 the brexit debate for the mass of the 390 00:17:45,679 --> 00:17:50,840 people they don't pluck any of the 391 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:53,120 fruits of globalization so I'm asking 392 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:55,520 you as a man of the left and you a man 393 00:17:53,120 --> 00:17:59,039 who knows the capitalist system very 394 00:17:55,520 --> 00:18:02,280 very well um why should we believe in 395 00:17:59,039 --> 00:18:06,520 free trade what's so great about free 396 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:09,600 trade why can't we do as much as we can 397 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:12,880 build and create for 398 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:15,240 ourselves because ultimately you can't 399 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:19,120 do it all I mean I have in my pocket an 400 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:21,280 iPhone um and as I'm sure you have we 401 00:18:19,120 --> 00:18:24,760 don't make those in the UK do you want a 402 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:27,600 life without um mobile telephony and you 403 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:29,559 want to life without um all sorts of 404 00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:32,960 products that are 405 00:18:29,559 --> 00:18:35,799 we invented industry here in this 406 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:39,799 building is the Adam Smith Institute or 407 00:18:35,799 --> 00:18:42,400 one of the offshoots of uh we invented 408 00:18:39,799 --> 00:18:45,559 we were the workshop of the world can't 409 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:47,280 we make mobile telephones um we could 410 00:18:45,559 --> 00:18:49,080 make mobile telephones the issue is 411 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:51,000 whether we could do them as well as 412 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:53,200 somebody else and do you want a kind of 413 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:57,400 inferior mobile telephone I mean we made 414 00:18:53,200 --> 00:19:01,159 ships we um made cars we made all the 415 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:04,039 industrial fabric all the nations 150 416 00:19:01,159 --> 00:19:06,440 odd years ago but other nations came 417 00:19:04,039 --> 00:19:08,400 along who did it better and we in turn 418 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:11,159 have specialize in other things and what 419 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:14,240 we're good at today are um uh computer 420 00:19:11,159 --> 00:19:17,120 software health education Finance 421 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:20,559 although uh it has issues um a lot of 422 00:19:17,120 --> 00:19:23,360 these soft uh intellectually intensive 423 00:19:20,559 --> 00:19:24,880 Pursuits uh creative Pursuits um the 424 00:19:23,360 --> 00:19:26,480 appeal to Something anarchic in the 425 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:29,280 spirit of the British but we do that 426 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:30,880 extremely well and we sell that to the 427 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,039 rest of the world so that's what we 428 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,840 should specialize in because we'll 429 00:19:32,039 --> 00:19:36,720 always if you like not always but we 430 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:38,640 might well be much better at inventing 431 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:42,240 computer games than we are now at 432 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:44,480 assembling a a car on a production line 433 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:46,400 indeed and in my own city of Dundee 434 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:48,600 that's what they do they invent computer 435 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:52,679 games they're the world's leader in that 436 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:55,600 but you know the the the point that you 437 00:19:52,679 --> 00:19:57,799 make that we should specialize in what 438 00:19:55,600 --> 00:20:00,600 we're good at and better than the rest 439 00:19:57,799 --> 00:20:02,600 of the world at at the moment the time 440 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:05,440 will come when we're no longer best at 441 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:07,720 that I mean the Indians and the Chinese 442 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:10,000 and the Russians and so on they're not 443 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:12,120 stupid people they'll soon be able to do 444 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:14,440 all those things that you say we 445 00:20:12,120 --> 00:20:17,320 specialize in just as well if not better 446 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:19,440 than us and then where will we be yes 447 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:21,600 but I mean that that's a separate issue 448 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:23,039 that I think is different from this 449 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:25,760 debate because I mean I think the real 450 00:20:23,039 --> 00:20:28,919 challenge is not sorting out the mess 451 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:31,919 we're in now it's the mess to come where 452 00:20:28,919 --> 00:20:35,080 the Advent of digital technology I mean 453 00:20:31,919 --> 00:20:37,960 you the there are surveys done which say 454 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:39,640 that a quarter of businesses will be out 455 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,840 of business within 5 years because of 456 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:43,919 the impact of technology that you know 457 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,880 all half the children in school will 458 00:20:43,919 --> 00:20:49,000 have to find jobs that haven't even been 459 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:53,480 invented yet uh you know the real threat 460 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:55,600 to the UK to the US to Europe is coming 461 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:57,960 from this huge technological wave that 462 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:59,799 is about to fake on our Shores and while 463 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,720 we're as focusing on the issues of 464 00:20:59,799 --> 00:21:03,760 globalization and uh you know whether we 465 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:06,600 can recreate a motor industry or 466 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:08,120 whatever we're ignoring an much bigger 467 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,559 threat that's just coming towards us are 468 00:21:08,120 --> 00:21:12,919 you suggesting that it comes from the 469 00:21:09,559 --> 00:21:14,440 East uh I'm it's coming from technology 470 00:21:12,919 --> 00:21:16,279 and the application of technology and 471 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:19,880 the fact you know it could be robotics 472 00:21:16,279 --> 00:21:22,720 it could be AI comes down or AI all 473 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:25,240 these things which uh we at a kind of 474 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:28,159 Tipping Point in technology which is 475 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:30,039 going to sweep away so many jobs that 476 00:21:28,159 --> 00:21:32,559 you know what's happened so far is just 477 00:21:30,039 --> 00:21:35,960 AED and that's I think we need 478 00:21:32,559 --> 00:21:39,799 desperately to start educating our kids 479 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:41,480 in school to cope with what is coming 480 00:21:39,799 --> 00:21:44,240 rather than sort of focusing on trying 481 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:47,440 to recreate what we had you know 30 50 482 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:50,559 even 100 years ago is Trump a man of the 483 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:53,159 left or a man of the right economically 484 00:21:50,559 --> 00:21:55,400 speaking actually bizarrely a lot of 485 00:21:53,159 --> 00:21:58,159 what he says is is of the left I mean 486 00:21:55,400 --> 00:22:01,720 the infrastructure spend and so on is 487 00:21:58,159 --> 00:22:04,000 really quite Keynesian um and quite at 488 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:06,159 odds with liberal economics and indeed 489 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:09,559 at odds with a lot of what his own party 490 00:22:06,159 --> 00:22:12,279 in Congress uh believe so and odds with 491 00:22:09,559 --> 00:22:13,840 the Dem so-called Democratic party once 492 00:22:12,279 --> 00:22:16,360 the party of the working class in 493 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:19,039 America so there interesting tensions in 494 00:22:16,360 --> 00:22:21,159 in in the chump program of how much he 495 00:22:19,039 --> 00:22:23,480 will get through before you know he 496 00:22:21,159 --> 00:22:25,720 starts meeting hostility within as it 497 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:27,080 were and it may well be on the budgetary 498 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:29,360 point you know your point about the tax 499 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:32,360 cuts that much as Republic an like tax 500 00:22:29,360 --> 00:22:33,840 cuts they also like balanced budgets and 501 00:22:32,360 --> 00:22:36,080 you know the two are incompatible in the 502 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:38,840 short term well George Bush Senior you 503 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:42,720 remember famously said read my lips no 504 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:46,679 new taxes and indeed lost the election 505 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:49,240 largely on that broken uh promise but 506 00:22:46,679 --> 00:22:51,679 isn't Trump setting out to show us that 507 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:56,200 something that the capitalists would 508 00:22:51,679 --> 00:22:58,640 rather leave hidden namely that issues 509 00:22:56,200 --> 00:23:01,799 like the deficit and so on are kind of 510 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:05,400 smoke and mirror trick because as QE 511 00:23:01,799 --> 00:23:08,039 proves you can print money if the money 512 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:12,760 is being used for good productive 513 00:23:08,039 --> 00:23:14,919 purposes as you say uh the net result is 514 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:17,640 positive yeah I mean if you can borrow 515 00:23:14,919 --> 00:23:19,919 it 1% and what your building is worth 516 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:22,679 yielding two or three or 4% why wouldn't 517 00:23:19,919 --> 00:23:24,880 you do it um the the issue with 518 00:23:22,679 --> 00:23:27,400 government spending is when you don't 519 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:29,000 get anything in return or or you know 520 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:31,440 you're not actually improving the 521 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:34,159 infrastructure be it schools hospitals 522 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:37,000 roads whatever the the children thing 523 00:23:34,159 --> 00:23:39,400 might be um so it's quite easy to borrow 524 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:42,799 money and squander it uh and Zimbabwe if 525 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:46,200 you like is is the oft quoted example 526 00:23:42,799 --> 00:23:47,760 but deficit financing by itself is not 527 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:50,240 necessarily a bad thing it's how you use 528 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:53,760 the money Adam Smith just fell off his 529 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:56,000 perch elsewhere in this building Anthony 530 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:58,120 Hilton it's been a pleasure as always uh 531 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,679 talking to you in a word are you an 532 00:23:58,120 --> 00:24:02,480 optimist Optimist or a pessimist about 533 00:23:59,679 --> 00:24:03,720 Britain's future oh I'm an optimist 534 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:07,360 people are 535 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:09,600 just Anthony Hilton the dwen of 536 00:24:07,360 --> 00:24:12,030 financial journalists joining us for a 537 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:14,600 special edition on the 538 00:24:12,030 --> 00:24:16,799 [Music] 539 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:19,159 Sputnik and now it's your turn to tell 540 00:24:16,799 --> 00:24:21,799 us what you think through the portals of 541 00:24:19,159 --> 00:24:24,159 social media what's rling gri so we 542 00:24:21,799 --> 00:24:27,120 wondered what president Trump will mean 543 00:24:24,159 --> 00:24:30,080 for Great Britain and the world economy 544 00:24:27,120 --> 00:24:32,159 so zamir says there are too many 545 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:35,200 variables to judge at the moment 546 00:24:32,159 --> 00:24:38,440 protectionism and civil Strife perhaps 547 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:40,799 and Yan says a really really hope for 548 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:42,880 positive radical change but I can't see 549 00:24:40,799 --> 00:24:45,080 the establishment giving up 550 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:48,399 neoliberalism radical change will happen 551 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:53,120 only through people power and Joey Zar 552 00:24:48,399 --> 00:24:56,480 says do as Wall Street says or die and 553 00:24:53,120 --> 00:24:59,120 finally jd1 says H I can see some roof 554 00:24:56,480 --> 00:25:00,640 touchers being busy right now 555 00:24:59,120 --> 00:25:04,000 that's the big question I should have 556 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:06,640 asked is it a wig or not some people say 557 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:09,120 that it isn't I hope nothing bad happens 558 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:11,799 to president Trump but I do hope someone 559 00:25:09,120 --> 00:25:13,840 gets close enough to pull his wig off uh 560 00:25:11,799 --> 00:25:16,240 because that would be the ultimate 561 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:18,399 ignominy uh whether Trump is a man of 562 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:21,000 the left or the right is of course an 563 00:25:18,399 --> 00:25:24,240 open question but I've got to be honest 564 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:28,399 with you for me his economic plans as 565 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:30,120 announced are of the left not said 566 00:25:28,399 --> 00:25:32,320 exactly that's all the tweets that we 567 00:25:30,120 --> 00:25:34,279 have time for today which alas means 568 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,960 that's the end of the show but you can 569 00:25:34,279 --> 00:25:39,159 stay in touch with us on social media 570 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:41,360 through Twitter rtor Sputnik on Facebook 571 00:25:39,159 --> 00:25:43,399 Sputnik on Russia today it's goodbye 572 00:25:41,360 --> 00:25:46,520 from me gatri and from me George 573 00:25:43,399 --> 00:25:46,520 Galloway it's been 574 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:02,440 marvelous 575 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,440 w